Updated analysis on the gas supply and demand situation
Danish and Swedish consumers will continue to experience a robust supply situation until and after the reopening of the Tyra platform in June 2023. However, the gas storage filling and relatively high energy prices at the beginning of the gas year in October 2021 call for increased attention.
Based on the now known prerequisites, Energinet encourages the commercial players to prepare for uncertainties through bookings of sufficient transport capacity and storage reservations, and act prudently to safeguard the security of supply.
Main developments according to the new analysis
The latest memo on the gas supply and demand situation was published in October 2020. Since then, the main developments and challenges are the following:
- The reopening of the Tyra platform is planned for June 2023.
- The Baltic Pipe and connection to Norway via Europipe II are both in operation in October 2022. However, the firm capacity for export to Poland via Baltic Pipe in Q4 2022 has been recalculated.
- The Danish Energy Agency has published the Analysis Assumptions 2021 with a higher projected Danish gas demand for 2022 as well as a slightly increased level of green gas production compared to the prognoses for 2022 published in the Analysis Assumption 2020.
- The absolute storage filling in Denmark is significantly lower at the start of the gas year 1 October 2021, compared to the absolute storage filling at the start of the gas year in 2020.
- Similar levels of long-term firm capacity at Entry Ellund have been booked for 2022 as for 2021.
- A special seasonal capacity tariff in Ellund is still valid for October 2021 to September 2022.
- The gas price, driven by the global supply and demand, has since summer 2021 increased to a very high level.
- The general European energy market and supply situation.
The development in the gas demand and supply should be closely followed by all commercial players in the Danish gas market. Especially the months from February to April calls for attention, when severe gas shortages in the transmission system could lead to the crisis level Emergency.